Evolução do Varejo Online

ANO	FATURAMENTO	Variação
2006(previsão)	R$  3.900 milhões	56%
2005	R$  2.500 milhões	43%
2004	R$  1.750 milhões	48%
2003	R$  1.180 milhões	39%
2002	R$     850 milhões	55%
2001	R$     549 milhões	-

Fonte: eBit

A reality check for online advertising

A rising demand for online ad vehicles could surpass supply in the near term.

Chris Grosso, Amy Guggenheim Shenkan, and Hobart P. Sichel

2006 Number 3

Internet advertising has recaptured the imagination of marketers, who see an enormous potential to raise the profile of their brands through vehicles such as paid search and online video. But the fact that scarcity is an issue for digital-advertising often gets lost in the enthusiasm. McKinsey research finds that bottlenecks in supply could limit the pace of online ad growth and raise prices over the next 24 months.¹ The study also suggests that a dearth of ad agencies that can manage both traditional and digital campaigns could further slow the shift in spending to online ads.

Our research combined quantitative analysis and more than 50 interviews with leading digital advertisers, ad agencies, and media companies. We compared both current and projected US ad spending for online vehicles—including video, banners, and paid search (ads tied to keywords that consumers enter in search engines)—with the maximum amount of advertising such vehicles could theoretically absorb today. This analysis revealed that the utilization of the most attractive digital-ad vehicles is already quite high and that, without large increases in the level of online advertising “inventory,” demand could outstrip supply over the next 24 months (exhibit). While prices are a closely guarded secret, our interviews indicate that they are already rising and likely to jump further as advertisers bump up against constrained supply.

Short-term mismatches between supply and demand appear greatest for the video ads that interrupt or precede online content, such as news clips. The inability of consumers to skip these ads and their use of sound and motion—proven tools for driving brand awareness among consumers—make online video highly attractive to marketers. According to many of the video suppliers we interviewed, very little unsold advertising capacity remains today. Assuming that marketers don’t increase the number of ads they place in each video stream, the maximum supply of video ads is currently about $600 million a year—far less than future demand, which we expect to reach $1.4 billion to $3.2 billion in 2007. Help will come from new strategies (such as Disney–ABC Cable Networks’ recent offering of television shows for download and the creation, by Ford Motor’s Mercury division, of a series of short online films), but they don’t seem likely to meet burgeoning demand on their own.

The situation is similar for paid search. Annual growth in the overall number of searches is slowing, from 30 percent in 2004 to 20 percent in 2005. Without significant changes in consumer click-through rates or in the prices advertisers are willing to pay, we estimate—using our analysis of the prevailing cost per thousand impressions (CPM) and Nielsen Media Research figures on paid search—that the maximum current value of paid-search advertising is about $7 billion. Meanwhile, our analysis of current and forecast page views, ads per page, and CPM rates suggests that advertisers will want to spend $9 billion to $12 billion on paid search in 2007, up from around $5 billion in 2005. Even without severe supply bottlenecks, there won’t be room to handle rapid near-term growth.

Finally, although the inventory of banner ads—$4 billion to $8 billion—appears more than sufficient to accommodate the likely demand of $2.5 billion, advertisers probably won’t be interested in much of what’s available. The complex task of spreading media spending across thousands of small Web sites, many with different ad formats, means that advertisers tend to return to heavily trafficked sites, where supply is at a premium. Even on the big portals, marketers are leery of having their ads placed near consumer-generated content that might be objectionable. In fact, advertisers currently direct 96 percent of their spending for online display ads to pages that represent just 30 percent of overall Web traffic.

Our interviews highlighted two additional hindrances. First, most advertisers expressed frustration at the small number of ad agencies with the skills to manage both traditional and digital campaigns. Many advertisers have no choice but to employ separate agencies and to coordinate cross-media efforts themselves, which makes it more challenging to manage—and evolve—their marketing mix. Second, the absence of a widely accepted independent metric for digital media (such as the NielsenTV ratings) makes it difficult to compare the results of online campaigns and to measure their impact—an uncomfortable fact for marketers considering major spending reallocations.

Of course, digital advertising won’t be permanently constrained. Consumers will eventually come to spend more time watching video on PCs and mobile devices. By some measures, they already focus upward of 30 percent of their media attention online—a far higher proportion than advertisers currently spend there. Marketers and media players thus have an enormous incentive to innovate and increase supply, which, along with better measurement technologies, will allow marketers to shift more of their budgets online.

Marketers must build the capabilities necessary to thrive in an environment where audiences and vehicles are highly fragmented, prices change quickly, and advertising’s performance differs by customer, vehicle, brand, offer, and message. This transition will require not only new management skills but also a detailed understanding of the marginal economics of products, customers, and customer conversion.

  

About the Authors

Chris Grosso and Bart Sichel are associate principals in McKinsey’s New York office, and Amy Guggenheim Shenkan is a consultant in the San Francisco office.

Notes

¹ Spending for online ads reached $12.5 billion in the United States in 2005, up from $10 billion the previous year. By contrast, spending for traditional ads totaled $220 billion in 2005.

Fonte: The McKinsey Quarterly

NBC Ends Feud, Partners With YouTube To Create ‘NBC Channel’

SIX MONTHS AGO, NBC ALL but declared war on YouTube, forcing the popular video-sharing site under threat of a lawsuit to remove a “Saturday Night Live” skit that a user had uploaded.

But Tuesday, NBC publicly reversed course with a deal to become the first major network to partner with the burgeoning YouTube.

The agreement calls for NBC to create an “NBC Channel” on YouTube to promote shows including “Saturday Night Live,” “The Office,” and “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno.”

New NBC content will be uploaded weekly, and the network will also host a competition for user-generated content, inviting YouTube users to submit their own 20-second spots for “The Office.” In yet another twist of old and new media platforms, NBC will broadcast promotions for the contest on air, and will also air the winning submission during an episode of the show in August. NBC is providing signature graphics and music from “The Office” for the contest. For its part, YouTube will promote NBC’s content throughout the site.

YouTube has been advocating such a deal since at least December 2005, when the two media companies collided head-on over the posting of a popular “SNL” spoof rap, “Lazy Sunday,” on YouTube in violation of NBC’s copyright.

Julie Supan, senior director of marketing at YouTube, told OMMA magazine earlier this year that the company tried to head off the earlier conflict, approaching NBC in late December about a possible partnership, but didn’t hear back until NBC’s legal warning arrived in February. YouTube immediately removed “Lazy Sunday,” Supan said.

Banda Larga no Brasil cresce 8% no primeiro trimestre de 2006

A Cisco Systems, lançou ontem a segunda edição do “Barômetro Cisco de Banda Larga”.

O estudo revela um crescimento de 8% no número de acessos em banda larga no Brasil no primeiro trimestre de 2006, em relação ao trimestre imediatamente anterior. O País fechou março com 4,364 milhões de conexões em banda larga, além de 70 mil conexões de IP Dedicado.

O Barômetro mostra, ainda, que a base instalada de usuários das diversas tecnologias de acesso em banda larga cresceu 73% em 2005, passando de 2,335 milhões de conexões no final de 2004 para 4,039 milhões de acessos em dezembro passado, 16,8% só no último trimestre do ano.

Um outro dado importante do estudo revela que os acessos de banda larga no país devem chegar a 6 milhões no final de 2006, o que representa um aumento de quase 50% em relação ao ano passado.

O estudo completo (em pdf) pode ser obtido aqui.

Disney says ABC free web TV a hit with consumers

(Reuters) – Prime-time ABC television shows were viewed more than 11 million times on the Web in the first month of a test by the Walt Disney Co. of whether consumers will watch ads online if the shows are free.

An online exit survey posted the first week of the two-month trial showed that 87 percent of respondents could recall the advertisers that sponsored the episodes they watched.

That compares with typical ad recall of about 40 percent for commercials viewed on television, industry sources said.

A retooled version of the free site, which incorporates data gathered during the test, will be launched in the Fall, Disney Media Network Co-Chair Anne Sweeney said.

The look of the ABC.com interface will remain similar to the test page, but the shows offered will change over time, Sweeney said.

Sweeney described the preliminary results of the test as "very heartening" and said it appeared that Disney would have no trouble attracting advertisers for shows offered on ABC.com.

The ABC.com pilot program in one month outperformed the results Disney had seen in its nine-month partnership with Apple Computer Inc.'s iTunes to offer episodes of its hit television shows for download, without commercials, for $1.99 each.

Since last October, Disney has sold more than 6 million downloads of shows like "Desperate Housewives," "Lost," and "Alias" on Apple's iTunes Web site.

Albert Cheng, executive vice president of digital media for Disney-ABC Television Group, said iTunes sales of ABC shows have remained consistent throughout the trial.

The test also showed that making the episodes available on online platforms is not decreasing the amount of traditional television viewing of those shows.

"It provided us with a great deal of information about our viewers," Sweeney told Reuters. "This technology has proved to be additive to linear television."

For example, Disney Channel's online broadband player, which offers episodes of the cable network's most popular childrens' series, racked up 26.7 million streams between June 2 and June 11, but television viewership also rose.

Disney Channel premiered episodes of "The Suite Life of Zack & Cody" online several hours before the program appeared on television, yet saw TV viewership for those episodes soar to number one in its time period for viewers ages 2 and older.

Cheng said Disney will halt the trial on June 30, as scheduled, while it examines the research data it collected from the site and from consumer focus groups.

The company, which was the first to offer free, ad-supported prime-time television shows online, must now figure out how to set advertising rates for the online episodes, he said.

Publicidade Online no Brasil cresceu no primeiro trimestre de 2006. [UPDATED]

Em 2005, os investimentos publicitários em Internet totalizaram R$ 265.650,458, o equivalente a 1,67% do total investido no ano.

Nos primeiros 4 meses de 2006, o meio recebeu R$ 93.549.243,60 em investimentos. Este valor corresponde a 1,85% do bolo, indicando uma tendência de crescimento.

Fonte: Projeto Intermeios (http://www.projetointermeios.com.br/)

HBO Promotes “Entourage” and “Deadwood” With Podcasts

HBO WILL PROMOTE TWO OF its hottest new series, "Entourage" and "Deadwood," with free podcasts on iTunes of exclusive footage including cast interviews, the company announced Wednesday. HBO will also be posting free podcasts of "behind-the-scenes" footage from two other new series, "Lucky Louie" and comedian Dane Cook's "Tourgasm." HBO has previously used podcasts to promote series like "The Sopranos, "Rome," "Big Love," and "Real Time with Bill Maher."

Online Ad Spend Grows To 13% In U.K. (02/06)

ONLINE AD REVENUE IN THE United Kingdom now accounts for 13 percent of ad spending–the same as for national newspapers–according to a recent report by WPP's Group M. In the United States, by contrast, online ad revenues are believed to account for around 5 percent of total ad spending.

Fonte: WPP Group

Fox Promotes X-Men On MySpace Tuesday (30/05)

MOVIE STUDIO 20TH CENTURY FOX spent 8 percent of the marketing budget for "X-Men III: The Last Stand" online, mainly thanks to a promotion on sibling News Corp. property MySpace, according to The Wall Street Journal. By contrast, the studio spent just 2 percent of budget for the second X-Men movie online, according to the Journal.
[grifo meu]

Fonte: The Wall Street Journal

Publicidade online cresceu 38% nos EUA no 1o trimestre (30/05)

Novos numeros divulgados pelo IAB, Interactive Advertising Bureau, indicam que a publicidade online nos EUA continua crescendo com força. O investimento no 1o trimestre do ano chegou a US$ 3,9 bilhoes, segundo estudo da entidade e da Pricewaterhouse Coopers. O valor é recorde para analise trimestral. O avanço é de 38% sobre o mesmo periodo do ano passado e de 6% sobre o trimestre anterior.

Fonte: IAB e e Pricewaterhouse Coopers