Intermeios – Jan – Abr 2007

Global Media Outlook: $2 Tril. by 2011

June 21, 2007
By Georg Szalai/The Hollywood Reporter NEW YORK The global entertainment and media industry will expand at a 6.4 percent compound annual growth rate over five years to hit $2 trillion in 2011, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ “Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2007-2011.”

One estimate likely to cause a stir includes the prediction that U.S. spending on Internet advertising and access will surpass spending on newspaper publishing in 2009.Globally, PwC expects Internet advertising and access spending to grow from an estimated $177 billion in 2006 to $332 billion in 2011, making for a 13.5 percent compound annual growth rate.

The U.S. remains the largest but also the slowest-growing media market in the world, expanding at an estimated 5.3 percent compound annual growth rate to hit $754 billion in 2011.

Asia Pacific will be the fastest-growing region at an estimated CAGR of 13.5 percent.

Digital media, particularly online and wireless, are pegged to be the key growth engines around the world, with nearly half of total industry growth expected to come from these two areas over the five-year period, according to the global consultancy.

PwC released its eighth annual Outlook forecast with these and other projections today.

Global advertising will increase at a 5.4 percent compound annual growth rate to expand from an estimated $407 billion in 2006 to $530 billion in 2011, the Outlook predicts.

According to PwC, the Internet will remain the fastest-growing ad medium, with a projected 18.5 percent CAGR to $73 billion, or 14 percent of total ad spend, by the end of the five-year period.

PwC projects double-digit growth in the online/digital and mobile fields in all territories around the world over the next five years to $153 billion, with TV distribution and video games also figuring as key growth engines.

Broadband households will grow by 300 million to 540 million, and wireless subscribers will increase by 1.1 billion to 3.4 billion worldwide, PwC also predicts.

“Content, distribution and technology companies need to aggressively seek out new relationships to accommodate the shift towards convergence,” said Jim O’Shaughnessy, global chairman of PwC’s entertainment and media practice.

In terms of regions, economic and media/entertainment growth will continue to boost the importance of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), according to PwC.

One particularly eye-catching projection by PwC calls for Asia-Pacific spending on the distribution of TV programming on mobile phones to jump from only $26 million in 2006 to $6.5 billion in 2011.

This 14.7 percent compound annual growth will be nearly three times the projected 5.5 percent increase for the rest of the world.

“Digital download-to-own streaming services will generate incremental revenue in the United States and EMEA,” PwC predicts. “Box office will be enhanced by digital cinemas in the United States, Europe/the Middle East/Africa and Asia Pacific and by modern theaters and more screens in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America.”

The 6.4 percent global entertainment spending increase projected in PwC’s Outlook compares with the compound annual growth rate of 6.6 percent that last year’s report predicted for the 2006-10 time frame.

Brazilian Retail E-Commerce

Online retailers learn to make amigos.

In 2006, Brazilians spent more than BRL13.3 billion (approximately $6.5 billion) shopping online, according to a January 2007 report by Câmara Brasileira de Comércio Eletrônico and E-Consulting.

Furthermore, research by e-bit published in February 2007 shows a jump in online buyers from 7.0 million in 2006 to a projected online crowd of 9.8 million in 2007.

According to a case study published in February 2007 by CorreiosNet Shopping, The Brazilian Post’s e-commerce portal, the best-selling products sold online are books, magazines and newspapers (17%), CDs and DVDs (16%) and electronic goods (15%). The average purchase through CorreiosNet is approximately $140. Most buyers (38%) are between 35 and 49 years of age, followed closely by buyers between the ages of 25 and 34. Currently, the site hosts about 790 shops.

The leading e-commerce site by far is MercadoLivre, Brazil’s version of eBay. Rather than providing Web hosting for bricks-and-mortar shops, MercadoLivre is an online warehouse of sorts, selling items ranging from clothing to sunscreen. MercadoLivre also caters to a different economic grouping than the CorriosNet Shopping site.

Perhaps one reason for the expansion of online advertising in Brazil can be found in the mind-set of the population. In a study published by GlobeScan in May 2006, people in Brazil join those in Nigeria, Indonesia, India and Russia in having more trust in their media outlets than in their governments.

As everywhere, the issue of online trust is highly linked to the success or failure of e-commerce strategies. This is even more critical in Brazil, due to a specific characteristic of Brazilian society, which is based on the idea that social position is a direct result of the friends one has. Some analysts even report that Brazilians are unable to conceive of a relationship that is not based on friendship.

While this may be seen as a somewhat antiquated point of view regarding a quickly emerging and technology-friendly market, it still might pay marketers to keep in mind the old Brazilian axiom: Mais vale ter amigos na praça que dinheiro em caixa — “It is worth more to have friends in the marketplace than cash.”

Fonte: eMarketer

Brazil Beats a Path Online

The surdo is the huge bass drum that creates the driving beat of the samba, and that pounding rhythm can be heard throughout the Brazilian Internet today.

After lagging for a number of years, Brazil is finally dancing online.

Although home connectivity still remains too costly for the majority of Brazilians, the country already leads Latin America in the number of Internet users, ahead of both Argentina and Mexico.

Like most of the world, many Brazilians have become accustomed to going online as part of everyday life, with Internet usage increasing steadily from about 9% of the total population (17.5 million) in 2005 to an expected 22% of population (43.7 million) in 2011.

According to the new eMarketer Brazil Online report, although less than 15% of Brazil’s population currently uses the Internet either in their homes, at work or in online cafés and public access kiosks, by 2011 nearly a quarter of Brazil’s population will be online.

A survey of Brazilian adults conducted late last year by Ipsos Public Affairs for Núcleo de Informação e Coordenação do Ponto Br (NIC.BR) found that 40% of them used the Internet from home, while 30% accessed the Internet from a public paid access location, such as an Internet café. Smaller percentages went online at work or school.

However, Brazil now has the third-largest number of broadband lines in the Americas, behind only the US and Canada.

Research published by Point Topic shows nearly six million total broadband lines in use in Brazil.

In addition, Brazil has established a sturdy foothold in e-commerce, including both online purchasing and online advertising.

ZenithOptimedia ranks Brazil as the seventh-largest online advertising market in the world.

Fonte: eMarketer

European Online Ad Spending

Display ads are popular on the Continent.

Online advertising spending within the 13 countries of the IAB Europe network was Eur8.003 billion ($10.08 billion) in 2006, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) Europe’s “Pan-European Online Advertising Spend” study, analyzed by PricewaterhouseCoopers

The UK accounted for the largest share of European online ad spending, at 39% of the total. Germany accounted for 22%, France for 15% and the Netherlands for 7%.

Alain Heureux of IAB Europe said, “These figures demonstrate without any doubt the significance of the European online advertising industry.”

Nearly a third of online advertising spend in 2006 was on all forms of display advertising, 45% on search advertising, 22% on classifieds and directories and 1.6% on e-mail marketing.

In 2007, eMarketer estimates advertisers will spend $7.5 billion to reach all Western Europeans, up 25% from $6.0 billion in 2006.

Online advertising in the UK will account for as much as 18% of all media spending this year, according to GroupM. It is also the most expensive country in the world for online advertisers. By 2010, eMarketer estimates advertisers will spend $217 per Internet user in the UK, compared with $136 per French user and only $10 per Italian Internet user.

The US audience is something of a bargain by comparison: Advertisers spent $86 per American user in 2006, and they are projected to spend $130 per user in 2010.

Fonte: eMarketer

E-commerce sites heavy users of paid search advertising

Retail and comparison shopping sites are the heaviest users of paid search advertising, according to a new report from comScore.

In March, U.S. paid search activity presented almost 20 billion total sponsored link exposures. Retail and comparison shopping sites made up the top ten of paid search advertisers, accounting for 16 percent. eBay took the number one spot with 802 million sponsored link exposures, or 4.1 percent, followed by Smarter.com with 366 million (1.9 percent) and Shopping.com with 357 million (1.8 percent).

It’s not surprising that retail e-commerce websites are aggressively using paid search to generate site traffic in what is an increasingly crowded and competitive marketplace.

“The top ten sites generating sponsored links — all of which are retail or comparison shopping sites — account for about one out of every six sponsored links served to U.S. Internet users,” said comScore’s James Lamberti, in a recent announcement. “Given that retail e-commerce is now a $100 billion a year industry, it’s not surprising that top online retailers are willing to bid for premium placement at the major search engines.”

The top ten paid search advertisers are:

eBay.com 801,744 —- 4.1%
Smarter.com 365,766 —- 1.9%
Shopping.com 357,012 —- 1.8%
Bizrate.com 297,649 —- 1.5%
Amazon.com 284,328 —- 1.4%
Dealtime.com 283,574 —- 1.4%
Shopzilla.com 245,398 —- 1.2%
Target.com 202,482 —- 1.0%
Nextag.com 163,220 —- 0.8%
Shop.com 123,009 —- 0.6%

IAB: Internet Ad Revenues Hit Record Q1 $4.9 Billion

INTERNET ADVERTISING REVENUES HIT A record $4.9 billion for the first quarter of 2007–a 26% increase over Q1 2006, and a 2% increase over the fourth quarter’s $4.8 billion, reported the Interactive Advertising Bureau.

“The continued growth of online ad revenues clearly illustrates marketers’ increased comfort with the extraordinary vitality and accountability of this medium,” said IAB President and CEO Randall Rothenberg.

“Given these results, we may expect continued strong revenue growth buoyed by an expanding broadband subscriber base, which could translate into more users spending more time online and offer a platform for rich media and video ads that dial-up connections can’t render,” said Peter Petrusky, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers, which conducts the research for IAB.

The IAB research tracks all Web sites selling advertising–including search, email and lead generation.

What’s significant, said Sheryl Draizen, senior vice president and general manager of the IAB, is that marketers are now looking at interactive across their entire marketing budgets–not just advertising.

[N.E.: Não ficou claro se este valor é apenas US ou mercado Global. Tendo a acreditar que seja apenas US]

Broadband Spreads Out, Speeds Up

At what point will DSL seem slow?

The number of broadband subscribers will reach 567 million worldwide by 2011, up from the current 285 million, according to In-Stat’s “Broadband Gets Big: Global Broadband Subs Hit 285 Million” report. New subscribers totaled 65 million in the 12 months prior to May 2007.

DSL and cable modems account for 92% of broadband connections worldwide. The report stated that over half of the world’s broadband access will come from DSL connections by 2011.

Mike Paxton of In-Stat attributed the growth to a basic desire for speedier Internet connections.

Mr. Paxton also said, “The emergence of online applications such as viewing video clips or TV programming, downloading music files, and even playing online games, are fueling end-user demand for ‘fatter pipes.’”

eMarketer’s own projections are based on the Federal Communications Commission’s definition of at least 200 kbps in at least one direction. eMarketer also counts broadband households, not individual subscriptions. By this count, the number of broadband-connected households will reach more than 497 million worldwide by 2011, up from 251.2 million in 2006.

eMarketer Senior Analyst Ben Macklin notes, “We are seeing high-speed Internet users trading up to very-high-speed Internet connections. Plain old vanilla ADSL is quickly turning into the new ‘dial-up’.”

The nature of broadband connections is also changing. In-Stat projected over 55 million fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) broadband households by 2011.

Alternative broadband technologies such as FTTH are growing quickly, especially in Japan, South Korea and the US, according to Point Topic. The firm claimed that more than 10% of the world’s broadband connections were through FTTH as of Q3 2006.